Title: Data from: Vulnerability of northern rocky mountain forests under future drought, fire, and harvest DOI: 10.7923/2kee-sq55 Data, code and/or products within this dataset support the following manuscript: Manuscript Title: Vulnerability of northern rocky mountain forests under future drought, fire, and harvest Journal: Frontiers in Forests and Global Change DOI: 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1146033 Description/Abstract: Novel climate and disturbance regimes in the 21st century threaten to increase the vulnerability of some western U.S. forests to loss of biomass and function. However, the timing and magnitude of forest vulnerabilities are uncertain and will be highly variable across the complex biophysical landscape of the region. Assessing future forest trajectories and potential management impacts under novel conditions requires place-specific and mechanistic model projections. Stakeholders in the high-carbon density forests of the northern U.S. Rocky Mountains (NRM) currently seek to understand and mitigate climate risks to these diverse conifer forests, which experienced profound 20th century disturbance from the 1910 “Big Burn” and timber harvest. Present forest management plan revisions consider approaches including increases in timber harvest that are intended to shift species compositions and increase forest stress tolerance. We utilize CLM-FATES, a dynamic vegetation model (DVM) coupled to an Earth Systems Model (ESM), to model shifting NRM forest carbon stocks and cover, production, and disturbance through 2100 under unprecedented climate and management. Across all 21st century scenarios, domain forest C-stocks and canopy cover face decline after 2090 due to the interaction of intermittent drought and fire mortality with declining Net Primary Production (NPP) and post-disturbance recovery. However, mid-century increases in forest vulnerability to fire and drought impacts are not consistently projected across climate models due to increases in precipitation that buffer warming impacts. Under all climate scenarios, increased harvest regimes diminish forest carbon stocks and increase period mortality over business-as-usual, despite some late-century reductions to forest stress. Results indicate that existing forest carbon stocks and functions are moderately persistent and that increased near-term removals may be mistimed for effectively increasing resilience. **Data Use** *License* Creative Commons Attribution ([CC-BY 4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)) *Recommended Citation*: Stenzel J, Buotte P, Hudiburg T, Kolden C, Bartowitz K, Walsh E. 2023. Data from: Vulnerability of northern rocky mountain forests under future drought, fire, and harvest [Dataset]. University of Idaho. https://doi.org/10.7923/2KEE-SQ55 **Funding** US National Science Foundation: DEB-1553049 USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture: 2022-67019-36435 USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture: 2021-67034-34997 Resource URL: https://data.nkn.uidaho.edu/dataset/data-vulnerability-northern-rocky-mountain-forests-under-future-drought-fire-and-harvest Creator(s): 1. Jeffrey Stenzel ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8881-0566 Affiliation(s): University of California, Merced 2. Polly Buotte ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6572-2878 Affiliation: University of California, Berkeley 3. Tara Hudiburg ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4422-1510 Affiliation: University of Idaho 4. Crystal Kolden ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7093-4552 Affiliation: University of California, Merced 5. Kristina Bartowitz ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9488-8930 Affiliation: American Forests 6. Eric Walsh ORCiD: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0077-3639 Affiliation: Manomet Other Contributor(s): NULL Publisher: University of Idaho Publication Year: 2023 Language(s): American English Subject(s): 1. Natural sciences 1.6 Biological sciences 4. Agricultural sciences 4.1 Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Keywords/Tags: forest; climate change; modeling; vulnerability; drought; fire; management; carbon Resource Type General: Dataset Dates: Manuscript accepted: 2023-08-16 Date available for the public: 2023-08-23 Sizes: Total - 2.6 GB readme.txt - 9 KB 2kee-sq55.xml - 9 KB domain_NR_1811px.nc - 710 KB parameters_FATES_NR_5pft.nc - 328 KB landuse_ts_NR_1900_2099_A1.nc - 272.3 MB landuse_ts_NR_1900_2099_A2.nc - 272.3 MB landuse_ts_NR_1900_2099_BAU.nc - 272.3 MB surfdat_NR_final.nc - 53 MB NR_1811px_IPSL_2026_2099_Harvest_AC1.clm2.h0.2026-01-01-00000.nc - 284.5 MB NR_1811px_IPSL_2026_2099_Harvest_AC2.clm2.h0.2026-01-01-00000.nc - 286.7 MB NR_1811px_IPSL_2026_2099_Harvest_BAU.clm2.h0.2026-01-01-00000.nc - 286.7 MB NR_1811px_MIROC_2026_2099_Harvest_AC1.clm2.h0.2026-01-01-00000.nc - 284.5 MB NR_1811px_MIROC_2026_2099_Harvest_AC2.clm2.h0.2026-01-01-00000.nc - 286.7 MB NR_1811px_MIROC_2026_2099_Harvest_BAU.clm2.h0.2026-01-01-00000.nc - 286.7 MB CLM5_documentation-03.2020.pdf - 4.4 MB FATES_documentation_09_2022.pdf - 8.8 MB key_parameters_FATES_NR_5pft.xlsx - 281 KB Format(s): .nc, .pdf, .xlsx, .txt, .xml Version: NULL Funding References: US National Science Foundation Award number: DEB-1553049 National Institute of Food and Agriculture Award number: 2022-67019-36435 National Institute of Food and Agriculture Award number: 2021-67034-34997 Spatial/Geographical Coverage Location: Study Area Description: US National Forest Service lands in north Idaho Temporal Coverage: NULL Granularity of the Data: 4km resolution for CLM FATES spatial inputs and outputs. Contact Info: Contact Name: Jeffrey Stenzel Contact Email: jeffrey.e.stenzel@gmail.com Related Content: Related Source Code Repository: https://github.com/jestenzel/fates/tree/fate_nrockies_1 Related model documentation: https://fates-users-guide.readthedocs.io/projects/tech-doc/en/stable/ Associated Peer-Reviewed Manuscript | Frontiers in Forests and Global Change: https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1146033 Data/Code Files: readme.txt: Project metadata in readme.txt format. 2kee-sq55.xml: Project metadata in DataCite xml format. CLM5_documentation-03.2020.pdf: CLM5 technical description. FATES_documentation_09_2022.pdf: FATES technical description at the time of study experiments. input_domain: domain_NR_1811px.nc: CLM FATES gridded domain file. Grid cell locations and mask. input_FATES_parameters parameters_FATES_NR_5pft.nc: Defines aspatial FATES parameters. Includes PFT parameters (e.g. plant traits); selective harvest fractions; Spitfire parameters; decomposition parameters; stomatal model; etc. input_landuse.timeseries landuse_ts_NR_1900_2099_A1.nc: Landuse timeseries file for moderate harvest increase scenarios. Landuse timeseries files in these experiments define harvest areal fractions per pixel and per year. Harvest timing within years is defined by the FATES parameter file. Under our modified FATE code, this file also prescribes the PFT planted during regeneration harvest activites, while the FATES parameter file defines the seed/seedling mass of planted trees. landuse_ts_NR_1900_2099_A2.nc: Landuse timeseries file for high harvest increase scenarios. landuse_ts_NR_1900_2099_BAU.nc: Landuse timeseries file for business-as-usual harvest scenarios. input_surfdat surfdat_NR_final.nc: CLM fates gridded surface data file. Defines gridcell scale characteristics including soil texture, bedrock depth, and PFT presence while using Fixed Biogeography mode, etc. key_parameters_FATES_NR_5pft.xlsx: Table of select FATES parameters that were important to study experiments. Parameters were either varied between PFTS in domain-scale experiments or held constant at values selected during model evaluation. PFT columns include 'DF' (Douglas fir), 'MC' (mixed conifer), 'PP' (ponderosa pine), 'SF' (subalpine fir/spruc), and 'LP' (lodgepole pine). outputs NR_1811px_IPSL_2026_2099_Harvest_AC1.clm2.h0.2026-01-01-00000.nc: FATES output file, yearly frequency. Scenario: Moderate harvest increase, IPSL climate. NR_1811px_IPSL_2026_2099_Harvest_AC2.clm2.h0.2026-01-01-00000.nc: FATES output file, yearly frequency. Scenario: High harvest increase, IPSL climate. NR_1811px_IPSL_2026_2099_Harvest_BAU.clm2.h0.2026-01-01-00000.nc: FATES output file, yearly frequency. Scenario: BAU harvest rates, IPSL climate. NR_1811px_MIROC_2026_2099_Harvest_AC1.clm2.h0.2026-01-01-00000.nc: FATES output file, yearly frequency. Scenario: Moderate harvest increase, MIROC5 climate. NR_1811px_MIROC_2026_2099_Harvest_AC2.clm2.h0.2026-01-01-00000.nc: FATES output file, yearly frequency. Scenario: High harvest increase, MIROC5 climate. NR_1811px_MIROC_2026_2099_Harvest_BAU.clm2.h0.2026-01-01-00000.nc: FATES output file, yearly frequency. Scenario: BAU harvest rates, MIROC5 climate.